The central bank’s determination to stabilize the RMB is recognized, Xiong Yiming, Sina Financial opinion leader (WeChat public number kopleader) columnist Ren Zeping, previously, the market for the central bank’s intentions elusive, doubt whether the central bank can "top up" sound noise dust. But after the central bank officials continuous statement, the guidance of the central price, related regulatory measures, as well as president Zhou Xiaochuan will not allow speculative forces to dominate the market sentiment, the market stability of the central bank’s determination to gradually recognize the rmb. The central bank’s determination to stabilize the RMB was approved: in February 15th, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar rose 1.27% to 6.4919, the biggest one-day gain since the exchange rate reform in July 2005. The central parity of RMB, offshore RMB and so on have risen. Comments: 1) the key point: after the Spring Festival on the first day, the spot exchange rate against the dollar soared more than 1.27%, the dollar index fell during the Spring Festival (about 0.5-1%), which originates from the two expected, one is economic weakness in the US and the United States is expected to raise interest rates by the market downturn, the dollar is expected to weaken, the central bank is two release signal, stability maintenance policy coordination, the Sino US trade surplus fell less than expected and higher than expected, the market gradually recognized by the central bank maintaining stability of RMB determination and ability. Zhou Xiaochuan, "don’t let speculators dominate the market sentiment" attitude is so speculative forces "quit". It is expected that the pressure of RMB one-way depreciation will decline, and the two-way fluctuation of the RMB against the U.S. dollar will increase in the future. The expectation of RMB short-term stabilization, is conducive to the improvement of risk preference, ease capital outflow pressure, to maintain the RMB exchange rate temporarily stabilized, A shares of the second wave of adjustment basically completed, cattle debt continue to judge ". The future of the RMB exchange rate in the future depends on China’s economic growth prospects, which further depends on the progress of the reform, especially in the market after the reform program "aesthetic fatigue", we need to observe the situation of political economy progress. 2) the RMB exchange rate rose sharply and appeared upside down with the central price. After the Spring Festival, the first trading day (February 15th), the spot exchange rate against the dollar rose 1.27%, the highest since the exchange rate reform in July 2005 and the biggest one-day rise, the central parity of RMB (6.5118) upside down, the offshore renminbi also rose to around 6.49 (if the day before the Spring Festival from 6.5688 onwards also rose), showed that the devaluation of the renminbi is expected to significantly ease. This month, and 1 is a completely different picture, then all kinds of exchange rate pressures, 1 month 7 day, the spot exchange rate against the dollar at 6.5939, the offshore renminbi rose to 6.76, NDF 7 (1 7 April approximation for 6.93). 3) two expected differences lead to RMB exchange rate rise. Today, the RMB appreciation (1.27%), over the Spring Festival period, the dollar index fell (about 0.5-1%), and the RMB from the previous "strong devaluation expectations" to today upside down (and the middle price ratio). We believe that there are two expected differences. First, the dollar’s appreciation is expected to weaken. In 2015, the dollar appreciated almost as expected, and the logic behind it was the United states.

央行维稳人民币的决心被认可   文 新浪财经意见领袖(微信公众号kopleader)专栏作家 任泽平 熊义明   此前,市场对央行意图捉摸不透,怀疑央行能否“顶得住”声音喧嚣尘上。但经过央行官员连续表态、对中间价的引导、相关管制措施,以及周小川行长表示不会让投机力量主导市场情绪后,市场对央行维稳人民币决心逐步认可。 央行维稳人民币的决心被认可   事件:2月15日,人民币兑美元即期汇率大涨1.27%至6.4919,创2005年7月汇改以来最大单日涨幅。人民币中间价、离岸人民币等纷纷上涨。   点评:   1)核心观点:春节后首日,人民币兑美元即期汇率暴涨1.27%,超过春节期间美元指数下跌幅度(约0.5-1%),这源于两个预期差,一是美国经济疲软和美国加息预期被市场大幅下调,使得美元升值预期减弱,二是央行连续释放维稳信号、中美政策协调、外储降幅低于预期和贸易顺差高于预期等,使市场逐步认可央行维稳人民币的决心和能力。   周小川行长“不让投机力量主导市场情绪”的表态更是让投机力量选择“知难而退”。预计人民币单向贬值压力下降,未来兑美元汇率双向波动幅度将增大。人民币预期短期趋稳,有利于改善风险偏好,缓解资金流出压力,维持“人民币汇率暂稳,A股第二波调整基本完成,债牛继续”判断。   未来中长期人民币汇率前景取决于中国经济增长前景,而这进一步取决于改革进展,尤其在市场对改革方案“审美疲劳”以后,需观察落地攻坚的政治经济学条件进展情况。   2)人民币汇率大涨并与中间价出现倒挂。春节后第一交易日(2月15日),人民币兑美元即期汇率大涨1.27%,创2005年7月汇改以来最大单日涨幅,与人民币中间价(6.5118)出现倒挂,离岸人民币也上涨至6.49附近(如果从春节前一天6.5688算起,也是大涨),均显示人民币贬值预期明显缓解。   这和1月初是完全不同的景象,当时各类汇率压力巨大,1月7日,人民币兑美元即期汇率报6.5939,离岸人民币一度上涨至6.76,NDF逼近7(1月7日为6.93)。   3)两个预期差导致人民币汇率大涨。今日人民币升值幅度(1.27%),超过春节期间美元指数下跌幅度(约0.5-1%),而且人民币由此前的“较强贬值预期”到今日出现倒挂(和中间价比)。我们认为源于两个预期差。一是美元升值预期减弱。2015年,美元升值几乎成为一致预期,背后逻辑是美国经济一枝独秀论和美国加息周期论。但近期这两大“强逻辑”开始变弱,美国经济呈现疲软迹象,美国加息预期被市场大幅下调。   二是央行维稳决心和能力获认可。此前,市场对央行意图捉摸不透,怀疑央行能否“顶得住”声音喧嚣尘上。但经过央行官员连续表态、对中间价的引导、相关管制措施,以及周小川行长表示不会让投机力量主导市场情绪后,市场对央行维稳人民币决心逐步认可。同时,中美政策协调、1月外汇储备降幅低于预期、贸易顺差创纪录等因素也支撑人民币汇率短期企稳双向波动。   4)双向波动将增大。我们预计,在当前人民币压力减缓的窗口期,央行会着力“制度建设”,一方面将更多发挥市场作用,让人民币兑美元汇率双向波动幅度增大,对一篮子货币基本稳定,另一方面会打击投机力量,让市场力量主要反映“货币的真实需求”。考虑到央行表态不让投机力量主导市场,未来汇率走势可能需要“逆向思维”。   5)人民币预期短期趋稳,有利于改善风险偏好,缓解资金流出压力,维持“人民币汇率暂稳,A股第二波调整基本完成,债牛继续”判断。人民币汇率趋稳,有助于缓解全球担忧,提振风险偏好,日欧等股市相继大涨显示了这一点。人民币预期趋稳,叠加两会前国内政策以暖风为主,市场风险偏好有所修复,A股第二波调整基本完成。资本外流压力缓解,利好债市。   未来中长期人民币汇率前景取决于中国经济增长前景以及宏观资产回报率,而这进一步取决于改革进展,尤其在对改革方案“审美疲劳”以后,需观察落地攻坚的政治经济学条件进展情况,未来仍存不确定性,改革驱动的风险偏好花开花落,深刻影响着人民币汇率、流动性、A股、债市等。   (本文作者介绍:国泰君安证券研究所董事总经理、首席宏观分析师,中国金融40人论坛特邀研究员、中国新供给50人论坛成员、中国人民大学兼职研究员等。曾担任国务院发展研究中心宏观部研究室副主任。)   本文为作者独家授权新浪财经使用,请勿转载。所发表言论不代表本站观点。相关的主题文章:

Comments are closed.
a b

Recent Posts