Before the tide of funds, why cotton calm? We want you! The first 2016 Chinese Potter Rockefeller award officially started! Fund, insurance, securities and other financial institutions ability to manage information, which is better? Please click on the vote to select the strongest organization in your mind! Original title: why cotton before the tide of funds calm? In fact, the recent domestic cotton price trend, the overall view is still not out of the big logical framework I had article points out, a new year is not early large unilateral market, rangebound; two is to have the possibility of rising prices, fell more than, and the possible time point at the start of the two quarter. And what is the reason? To see from the author’s point of view, mainly because in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, due to lack of policy, the contradiction between supply and demand of the market is actually very difficult to have too big surprise. Make a rough that is fundamental to the qualitative evaluation, from the current perspective, whether output is the so-called 430 or 450 million tons million tons, plus the beginning of the textile enterprises itself inventory and business inventories, the actual supply of at least 550 million tons, and if the accident began throwing storage in 3 months then, according to a total of 9-2 months 6 months, the average monthly supply of 90 million tons, and this is not on imports, but in fact even with last year’s situation, the total consumption is 750 million tons is near the monthly consumption in 62.5 million tons, far oversupply, and from the recent situation of downstream, jiushiyue busy season, December is about to enter the off-season, so from the supply pattern, not fried fried, it is difficult to have a big rally. So what’s the main reason for the recent rise? From the macro environment point of view, nothing but lies in the huge pressure of RMB devaluation, coupled with the relatively cheap price of goods, market regulation after domestic hot money, so the goods rose overall, but the brutal logic, a trend which cannot be halted. But from the overall view of the differentiation of commodity funds, hunting is not completely regardless of the fundamentals, after all, like PTA was crushed by the poor processing varieties, although also spent a lot of effort, once Masukura 600 thousand hand hard work, but he was not able to smoothly push up prices, but more twists and turns. So you have to look at the fundamentals, fundamentals, the strong, weak fundamentals, in front of the tide of capital will rise, but once the logic weakened, its rise is very twists and turns. While cotton after rising on the surface of the basic reason, the previous article also summed up the main, is listed on the progress of the slow and the cotton ginning factory in soaring prices, in addition to the futures rose more push up the expected formation of short linkage. But with the increasing amount of agricultural seed market and issue credit limit, the Corps pricing, for the price of the actual negative expectations began to materialize, so before a brief rise this logic weakening. Before the price at 15500 nearby, the author also mentioned in suspense the fundamentals of the problem is that in the end is not the final price of cotton upstream Kangzhu began to decline? Or is the downstream textile factory running out of stock and having to accept high prices? theory

资金大潮之前棉花为何淡定? We want you!2016首届中国波特菲勒奖评选正式开始!基金、保险、券商等金融机构资管能力孰优孰强?请点击【投票】,选出你心中的最强机构!   原标题:资金大潮之前棉花为何淡定?   实际上对于近期的国内棉价走势来说,整体的看法依然没有脱离此前笔者的文章所指出的大逻辑框架,一者是新年度初期没有大的单边行情,区间震荡为主;二是如果要有行情,上涨的可能性大于下跌,并且可能的时间点在二季度开始之后。而原因是什么?从笔者的角度去看,主要是因为在四季度以及明年一季度,由于政策的缺位,实际上市场的供需矛盾很难有太大的看点。做一个粗略的基本可以认为是定性的评价,从当前看,无论产量是所谓的430万吨还是450万吨,加上期初的纺企本身库存以及商业库存,实际的供给起码在550万吨以上,而如果抛储不出意外在3月份开始,那么按照9-2月份共计6个月来看,每月平均供给有90万吨以上,而且这还没算上进口,但实际上即使按照上一年度的状况来看,总消费也就是750万吨附近,也就是月度消费在62.5万吨左右,远远供大于求,何况从近期实际的下游状况看,九十月份旺季不旺,十一月份即将步入淡季,所以从大的格局看,炒供给没得炒,自然就很难有大的上涨行情。   那么回到当前的状况,此前的上涨主要是什么原因呢?从大的宏观环境来看,无非在于人民币贬值带来的巨大压力,商品相对比价便宜了,加之楼市调控之后国内热钱泛滥,所以商品整体大涨,逻辑野蛮,但势不可挡。但从整体商品的分化来看,资金的围猎也并不是完全不管基本面,毕竟类似PTA这样被加工差压死的品种,虽然也花了大力气,一度增仓60万手死干,但最终还是没能顺顺利利的推升上去,有涨,但比较波折。所以还是得看基本面的,基本面强,那就强者恒强,基本面弱,在资金的大潮面前也会涨,但是一旦逻辑弱化,其上涨也就变得非常波折。而棉花此前上涨基本面上的原因,笔者之前的文章也总结过,主要就是上市进度的缓慢以及轧花厂抢收带来的籽棉价格的飙涨,另外期货上涨更加推升了这种预期,形成短暂的联动。但随着籽棉上市量的增加以及农发行限贷、兵团定价的出现,实际对于价格的利空预期开始有所兑现,所以之前这样的短暂上涨逻辑弱化。之前价格在15500附近的时候,笔者也提到过基本面上悬而未决的问题在于到底是上游籽棉最终价格未扛住开始走低?还是下游纺织厂库存耗尽不得不接受高价?但是随着上述的一些状况出现,最终上游的籽棉收购价格在限贷以及兵团销售低价14800的价格压力下开始走低,所以市场方向开始明确,一度破位15000整数关口。   但是不是会有深跌的可能呢?笔者认为至少目前看来依然比较难,虽然从逻辑上看,供给充裕是最大的利空,加上之后3月份的抛储政策,一旦抛储,那么对于市场来说似乎就是利空的。但是从目前来说,不得不忽视的状况是,一者整体的资金未退潮之前,商品氛围在,那就很难出现大跌,从资金的角度看,因为做多和做空的容量是不一样的,而且在产业普遍看空的情况下,产业资金容易被围猎。其二,兵团的销售低价14800,虽然短期内对于现货价格有一定的冲击,但是实际上也意味着这是相对的一个支撑价格,毕竟低于这个价格,市场上愿意做仓单的资源就会减少,而在前期不少收购价格较高的情况下,实际轧花厂的综合成本也不会低,所以一旦跌破这个位置,有一定的期现价差,那么仓单缺口就可能带来期现价差的回归。所以短期来说,深跌的可能性不大。   当然另外一个被经常提及的隐患在于外盘,但是外盘的价格受到什么影响?一个是国外市场的价格,一个也有中国市场的价格,其实从现货操作的角度看,如果国内外价差有了套利空间,那么外盘的订购点价就会迅速上升,因为无论从进口棉也好,进口纱的操作也好,都有一定利润了,没理由不做,那么在这样比较迅捷的套利状况下,实际上笔者之前也提过,价差很难拉开太多,加上在65-67美分区间大量介入的东南亚南亚买盘,所以外盘65美分一线也有强支撑。这也是不太可能大跌的原因。   当然也有人说现在印度国内价格大幅下跌,但是问题是,印度国内的价格本来就是虚高,如果对比印度棉和美棉正常的价格,印度棉的回归再正常不过了,但这样的回归对美棉的影响是有限的,毕竟美棉的销售已经是超前了。最后谈一下对于明年抛储政策再度开始之后的看法。实际上还是那句话,抛储是关在笼子里的老虎,而开笼子的钥匙是价格,价格弱,那么抛储成交必然不多,后期价格就不会太弱,这是由于内外价差收窄带来的内盘棉花和棉纱上的套利决定的,如果价格强,那么抛储成交多,后期需求证伪以及价差拉大后外盘棉花和棉纱上的套利就可能导致内盘后期反而偏弱。但是从当前的基本面逻辑看,上面也说了,实际四季度和一季度是淡季,价格强的可能性极低,毕竟上去面临前期被套在高位的棉花,这些棉花下游以这样高价接盘的可能性极低,所以一旦期货上涨,那么套保成为最好的选择,所以高度有限,那么既然高度有限,下行空间又不大,所以区间震荡就是最大的可能,加上一季度正值春节前后,下游需求低点,价格位于区间低位运行的可能性就大大增加,所以从这个意义上,笔者认为行情可能在二季度开始以后再度有所走强。而从政策本身的角度去看,虽然产业一直在呼吁一个问题,就是要放量抛储给予下游纺企抛储红利,但是问题是,这本身是一个悖论,一旦放量抛储,那么价格可能就会受到打压,一旦价格受到打压,纺企反而不敢拿,所以这其实是市场中的人性决定的,政府要去库存,实际上价格平稳或者走强是最好的办法。( 华瑞资讯)   农产品集购网16988-全国大宗农产品电商交易平台;【白糖、油脂、玉米、大豆、小麦、棉花、豆粕】免费资源发布、采购对接;报价-下单看行情;灵活、便捷更省心;点击前往报价,查看大宗农产品行情 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章:

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