Founder Securities Liquidity: no new inflection point of looking for opportunities to improve short-term cash income Sina App: Live on-line blogger to guide the purchase of new shares: the stock market is the most simple way is to pick up the money market strategy in 1, still from neutral to overly cautious stage, seeking opportunities to deliver revenue reflects the liquidity of the market has been improved to reflect the new, marginal changes, new changes in the growth direction of deterioration of the fourth quarter will be from neutral to cautious transition stage, suggest looking for the chance to cash income. The liquidity level after June broad interest rates began to fall, the market of real estate prices in August is the improvement of dynamic convection concentrated mapping, before a new round of growth decline, liquidity point not more positive effect, which means that the four quarter liquidity is no longer the core variable will be relegated to a secondary position. The economic growth level, 16 years since the underpinning of the infrastructure and real estate investment growth has declined since February, the economy has stabilized or improved will usher in changes in mean earnings improvement is coming to an end. Policy factors to assess the neutral, the three major risks that the exchange rate, the housing market, liquidity trap response measures currently no clear progress. 2, 09 years since the third credit expansion since 2009 near the end of the third credit expansion began in the middle of 2015, and the credit expansion two times before the process is different, and the corporate sector loans households growth only part of the draw further apart, family credit expansion, the impact on the economy is completely different. At present, third credit expansion near the end of 17 years, the credit contract again, in accordance with the 2016 loan balance calculation, new loans are expected to slightly more than 15 years, 12-13 trillion, if the superposition of local debt replacement in 5 trillion and 500 billion, and targeted easing (special financial bonds of 1 trillion + 17 years), credit, local debt replacement and special financial bonds growth will fall, which means that after 17 years of credit once again facing a contraction. In addition, the current China real estate loans accounted for more than 06 years or so close to the United States accounted for more than 45% levels, since 2012 rounds of credit expansion are all part of the household sector, that nearly two leading credit expansion factors turning, real estate loans decreased significantly. The 3 and fourth quarter of industry configuration: medicine, rail transportation, banking industry configuration idea: in the fourth quarter overall tone cautious, industry configuration from the defense industry and high industry boom, since the end of February over with the food and beverage, electronics, automobile, real estate industry systemic opportunities towards the end; the 4 quarter defense the industry preferred bank and pharmaceutical industry preferred, rail transportation of high economic and policy support. The attention of medical pharmaceutical business segments, granule, rail transit project approval intensified, policy banks will increase credit policy, the catalyst increased, the valuation of the banking industry is mainly based on the configuration of the defensive mentality, cheap, policy catalyst. Risk warning: the rapid decline of the text: 1, to honor the income market has been reflected in the improvement of liquidity, is about to reflect the new marginal changes in the direction of the new growth theory相关的主题文章:

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