The Asian investment bank and The Belt and Road should hype the sina finance opinion leader (WeChat public institutions Project Syndicate column No. kopleader) author Geoffrey – Sax (Jeffrey D. Sachs) Columbia University professor of sustainable development, Professor of health policy and management, the research director of the Institute, a special adviser to the Secretary General of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals Chinese sub in the area of investment bank and its construction of modern transportation and communication The Belt and Road plan is the move in the right direction. These projects will allow Chinese factories to keep up with the investment needed for the rapid growth of today’s low-income countries. The Renminbi should also be allowed to depreciate so that China’s exports of capital goods to Africa and Asia are cheaper. The Asian investment bank and The Belt and Road should be at the beginning of the hype of New York in 2016, the world economy is experiencing unrest. The stock market crash; emerging economies are struggling to cope with a sharp fall in commodity prices; refugee inflows have further shaken Europe; China’s growth has slowed sharply due to capital flow reversals and currency overvaluation; the United States has fallen into a political paralysis. Some central bankers try their best to keep the world economy growing. To get rid of this dilemma, four principles need to be followed. First, global economic progress depends on global savings and high investment. Secondly, savings and investment flows should be viewed from a global rather than a national perspective. Third, full employment depends on high investment rates matched with high savings rates. Fourth, the high private investment in the enterprise sector depends on the high public investment in basic society and human capital. Let’s analyze them one by one. First of all, our global goal should be economic progress, which means that the world is getting better living conditions. In fact, this goal has been written in September last year to achieve sustainable development goals agreed by all 193 members of the United nations. Progress depends on high global investment rates: building skills, technologies and physical capital stocks to improve living standards. Economic development, like everyday life, has no free lunch: without increasing investment in knowledge, skills, machinery, and sustainable infrastructure, productivity will decline (mainly because of depreciation) and lower living standards. High investment rates depend, in turn, on high savings rates. A famous psychology experiment has found that children who can resist the temptation of not eating the marshmallow immediately and getting two marshmallows in the future are more likely to succeed than adults who are not tempted. Similarly, the society that deferred immediate consumption for future savings and investment will have higher future income and greater retirement security. When American economists suggest that China stimulate consumption and save savings, they are actually spreading the bad habits of American culture, and Americans are saving and investing too little for the future of the United states. Secondly, savings and investment flows are global. Countries like China, whose high savings rate exceeds the need for local investment, can support less savings in other parts of the world, especially in low-income Africa and asia. China’s population is rapidly aging, and Chinese families are also saving for retirement. China。

亚投行和一带一路应开足马力   文 新浪财经意见领袖(微信公众号kopleader)机构专栏 Project Syndicate 作者 杰弗里-萨克斯(Jeffrey D. Sachs) 哥伦比亚大学可持续发展教授、卫生政策和管理教授、地球研究所主任,联合国秘书长千年发展目标特别顾问   中国的亚投行及其在全地区构建现代交通和通讯联系的一带一路计划才是方向正确的举措。这些项目将让中国工厂保持开足马力,为当今低收入国家的高速增长生产所需要的投资品。人民币也应该允许贬值,以使中国对非洲和亚洲的资本品出口更加便宜。 亚投行和一带一路应开足马力   纽约—2016年伊始,世界经济正在经历动荡。股市崩盘;新兴经济体疲于应付大宗商品价格暴跌;难民流入进一步动摇着欧洲;中国的增长因为资本流逆转和货币高估而显著放缓;美国则陷入了政治瘫痪。一些央行行长竭尽全力让世界经济保持增长。   要摆脱这一困境,需要遵循四个原则。首先,全球经济进步取决于全球储蓄和投资高企。其次,储蓄和投资流应该从全球而不是国家角度去看待。第三,充分就业取决于与高储蓄率匹配的高投资率。第四,企业部门的高私人投资取决于基础社会和人力资本方面的高公共投资。让我们逐一分析。   首先,我们的全球目标应该是经济进步,这意味着全世界都获得更好的生活条件。事实上,这一目标已经在去年9月写入了获得联合国所有193个成员一致同意的可持续发展目标。进步取决于高全球投资率:构建技能、技术和实体资本存量提高生活水平。经济发展和日常生活一样,没有免费的午餐:不提高在知识、技能、机械和可持续基础设施方面的投资率,生产率就会下降(主要是因为折旧),降低生活水平。   高投资率反过来取决于高储蓄率。一项著名的心理学实验发现,能抵挡住不马上吃掉棉花糖的诱惑,进而在未来获得两个棉花糖的小孩,他们长大成人后成功的可能性比经不住诱惑的小孩更大。类似地,推迟即刻消费为未来储蓄和投资的社会将获得更高的未来收入和更大的退休保障。(当美国经济学家建议中国刺激消费、削减储蓄时,他们其实是在传播美国文化的坏习惯,美国人为美国的未来储蓄和投资得实在太少了。)   其次,储蓄和投资流是全球性的。中国这样的国家,它的高储蓄率超过了本地投资需要,可以支持储蓄较少的世界其他地区的投资,特别是低收入的非洲和亚洲地区。中国的人口正在快速老龄化,中国家庭也在为退休而储蓄。中国人知道,他们的家庭金融资产,而不是数量众多的孩子和政府社会保障,才是财务安全的主要来源。另一方面,低收入非洲和亚洲地区缺少资本而很年轻。他们可以从中国的高储蓄中借钱大量快速地构建教育、技能和基础设施,支持自身的未来经济繁荣。   第三,高全球储蓄率不会自动转变为高投资率;除非得到适当引导,否则高储蓄率可能导致支出不足和失业。存入银行和其他金融中介(如退休基金和保险资金)的钱可以用于生产性活动,也可以用于短期投机(如消费贷款和房地产)。摩根等大银行家创造了铁路和钢铁这样的产业。反之,今天的资金管理人效仿的榜样却是赌徒甚至诈骗犯(如查尔斯·庞齐)。   第四,如今,具有高社会回报的投资——如低碳能源、城市智能电网和基于信息的医疗系统——取决于公私合作,其中公共投资和公共政策有助于刺激私人投资。这早已不是什么新鲜事:铁路网、航空、汽车、半导体、卫星、GPS、液压致裂法、核电、基因组学还有互联网都是拜公私合作所赐(通常但不总是从军用项目起步)。   当今的全球问题是世界金融中介没有合理地引导长期储蓄进入长期投资。大部分政府(美国就是显例)在长期教育、技能培训和基础设施方面长期投资不足,这一事实进一步加剧了这一问题。私人投资不足主要是因为与之互补的公共投资不足。短视的宏观经济学家说,世界消费不足;事实上,世界是投资不足。   结果是全球需求不足(全球投资达不到充分就业水平下的全球储蓄)和短期资本流波动频繁(为了给消费和房地产融资)。这些短期资本流常常发生规模和方向的突然逆转。1997年亚洲金融危机之前,流向亚洲的资本流突然中断;而在2008年9月雷曼兄弟倒闭后,全球短期借贷突然干涸,导致了大衰退(Great Recession)。如今,中国正面临同样的问题,资本流入突然之间转变为资本流出。   给中国的主流宏观经济学建议——刺激国内消费和高估人民币以降低出口——便是失败的棉花糖测试。这一建议鼓励人口迅速老龄化的中国社会和能让中国的高储蓄和工业产能大显身手的世界过度消费、投资不足、提高失业率。   正确的政策是将中国的高储蓄引向增加低收入非洲和亚洲地区的基础设施和技能投资。中国的新亚洲基础设施投资银行及其在全地区构建现代交通和通讯联系的一带一路计划才是方向正确的举措。这些项目将让中国工厂保持开足马力,为当今低收入国家的高速增长生产所需要的投资品。人民币也应该允许贬值,以使中国对非洲和亚洲的资本品出口更加便宜。   更一般地说,政府应该扩大国家和多边开发银行(包括亚洲、非洲、美洲和伊斯兰国家的地区开发银行),引导来自退休基金、保险资金和商业银行的长期储蓄进入二十一世纪产业和基础设施的长期公共和私人投资。中央银行和对冲基金无法营造长期经济增长和金融稳定。唯有长期投资(包括公共和私人投资)能够让世界经济摆脱目前的动荡和低增长。   (本文作者介绍:报业辛迪加(Project Syndicate)被称为“世界上最具智慧的专栏”,作者来自全球顶级经济学者、诺奖得主、政界领袖,主题包括全球政治、经济、科学与文化塑造者的观点,为全球读者提供来自全球最高端的原创文章、最具深度的评论,为解读“变动中的世界”提供帮助。)   本文为作者独家授权新浪财经使用,请勿转载。所发表言论不代表本站观点。相关的主题文章:

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