The real estate market moderate rebound or sustainable   inventory is still a protracted war — Finance — original title: the real estate market moderate rebound or sustainable to inventory is still a protracted war [] China economic commentary to the inventory of real estate to be a protracted war "Chinese Economic Weekly" commentator Ge Feng following the "non purchase city first ordinary housing mortgage loans Shoufu ratio decreased again by 5 percentage points, before and after the Spring Festival and a number of provinces have issued a series of specific measures to resolve the real estate inventory, including transactions in tax relief, improve the shantytowns monetary settlement rate etc.. The move forward effect has been revealed, for example, monitoring data show that during the Spring Festival, a sample of 15 city overall turnover growth of 6.9% over the last year during the Spring Festival, more than half of them (8) City turnover increase significantly. With more loose policy landing, force, since the second half of last year, the real estate market (especially residential market) moderate warming trend is expected to continue. But this does not mean that the real estate market will be like 2009 suddenly stabilized and retaliatory rebound. The real estate inventory task will be in the future for a long time, because of the arduous continued in the basic situation, at present: first, the real estate market to pick up signs, far less than in the fundamental torsional pile up in excess of requirement. Although the annual residential and commercial housing sales last year increased by 14.4% and 16.6%, but because of the new home market speed is relatively faster, so as of 12 at the end of last year, the national real estate and residential area for sale still grew by 15.6% and 11.2%, to inventory pressure continues to add in. Secondly, the current real estate market overall rebound, is in the regional market accelerated differentiation of aggregated results. That is to say, to the inventory of real estate to the "main battlefield", which constitute the main part of the national real estate market (more than 70%) sales of three lines below the city did not appear obvious reversal, last year these area real estate sales growth of only 2.8%, excluding the less part of the focus of the city most of the national real estate the actual market is still hovering in the low. Third, has been introduced and the recent effect to the stock measures are the basic demand side microstimulated. And this kind of micro stimulation, although consistent with the "stability" and "quasi" the overall principle, but after all, can not fundamentally change the fundamental pattern of the real estate market. For example, to reduce the proportion of the first payment, last year introduced the "930 new", have "non purchase city down payment from 30% down to 25%, followed by the fourth quarter of 36 non" restriction "key city sales area is indeed over the previous three quarter average growth of 34%, but this increase compared to the positive first-tier cities sales growth (27%) the difference is not great. Therefore, the real estate inventory to the fundamental policy, or rely on the supply side of the structural reform, and such reform, obviously can not be achieved overnight. Finally, the objective function of the real estate inventory, itself contains "to prevent new overcapacity."". Therefore, it is not necessary to promote this task. 房地产市场温和回暖或可持续 去库存仍是持久战–财经–人民网 原标题:房地产市场温和回暖或可持续 去库存仍是持久战   【中国经济时评】房地产去库存是一场持久战   《中国经济周刊》特约评论员 葛丰   继非“限购”城市首套普通住房按揭贷款首付比再次降低5个百分点,春节前后又有多个省份陆续出台一系列化解房地产库存具体举措,内容包括减免交易环节税费、提高棚户区改造货币化安置率等等。   上述举措正向效应已有所显现,譬如有监测数据显示,春节期间15个样本城市总体成交量比去年春节期间增长6.9%,其中超过半数(8个)城市成交量增幅较为显著。伴随更多宽松政策落地、发力,始自去年下半年的房地产市场(尤其是住宅类市场)温和回暖趋势或可望延续。   但这并不表明房地产市场会像2009年那样遽然止跌并报复性反弹。房地产去库存任务将在未来相当长时期内,持续处于艰巨繁重基本态势中,原因在于:   首先,目前出现的房地产市场回暖迹象,远不足于扭转供过于求的基本面。尽管去年全年商品房和住宅销售额分别增长了14.4%和16.6%,但由于各地新房上市速度相对更快,因此截至去年12月末,全国商品房和住宅待售面积仍然增长了15.6%和11.2%,去库存的压力仍在继续加重中。   其次,目前出现的房地产市场总体回暖,是在区域市场加速分化情况下汇总的结果。也就是说,房地产去库存的“主战场”,即构成全国房地产市场主干部分(70%以上)的三线以下城市的销售情况并未出现明显反转,去年全年这些地区的房地产销量增幅仅为2.8%,排除掉少部分重点城市后的全国大部分房地产市场,实际仍在低位徘徊中。   第三,目前已出台并且近期可见效的去库存举措,基本都属于需求端的微刺激。而这类微刺激虽然符合“稳”和“准”的总体原则,但毕竟无法从根本上改变房地产市场的根本格局。譬如降低首付款比例,去年出台的“930新政”中,已经把非“限购”城市的首付款比例从30%下调至25%,其后第四季度36个非“限购”重点城市的销售面积也确实比前三季度均值增长了34%,但这一增幅相比无此利好的一线城市销售增幅(27%)差别并不大。因此房地产去库存的治本之策,还是要靠供给侧的结构性改革,而这类改革,显然无法在短期内一蹴而就。   最后,房地产去库存的目标函数中,本身就包含有“防止新的产能过剩”。因此,这一任务推进过程中,本来就没有必要过分求快以致市场再次形成错误预期。中国的房地产去库存,需要一个较为长期并且较为“煎熬”的时期,让市场找到出清价格,让开发商、金融机构、地方政府等市场主体学会为自己错误买单,让市场机制真正发挥决定性作用。   中国的房地产去库存是一场艰难的持久战。只有充分认识到这一点,才能在始终保持定力与理性的前提下,张弛有度地精准发力、顺势而为。相关的主题文章:

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